Article Summary 4: Vaccine Supply May Miss Swine Flu

McNeal, Donald. New York Times: Science. Vaccine Supply May Miss Swine Flu Peak. 2009 Sept 11 [cited 2009 Sept 15]. Available from: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/12/us/12flu.html?_r=2&ref=science

In recent weeks, the news media has lauded the new swine flu vaccine for its effectiveness in clinical trials. Officials have even reported that just one dose of the H1N1 vaccine appears to fully protects recipients, instead of the two doses researchers hypothesized. This article argues that regardless of how effective this vaccine may be, its distribution to the general public will not happen soon enough.

Epidemiologists predict that the peak of this season’s swine flu pandemic may come as early as mid-October! Normally there are almost no flu cases around this time of year. Yet today, 11 states have flu activity that was rated “widespread” by the CDC – the highest of 5 levels. Of those cases, the CDC reports that 98% of them are related to the H1N1 virus. Consequently, scientists believe that this flu epidemic will peak much earlier. This trend is also supported by historical epidemics that were also related to new strains of viruses.

While 195 million vaccines will be produced by October 15, it will then take time to ship vaccines across the country, inject patients, and wait for an immune response (normally 8 – 10 days).

That is not nearly enough time to protect even the nearly 160 million Americans who are most vulnerable to the disease: health care workers; pregnant women; women with infants; people ages 6 months to 24 years; adults who are sick.